Old and New Threats to Communities

The following is offered by Dr. John Plodinec, Associate Director for Community Resilience Certification at CARRI and Science Advisor, Savannah River National Laboratory.



In the first post of this series, I summarized the reasons that a community resilience framework is needed – now. In my last post, I expanded on one of them: the growing complexity of communities. In this post, I want to expand on another of them: the new spectrum of threats facing communities.

American communities have always been at risk from natural hazards and pandemics. However, the evolving and ever more complex nature of communities, and the rise of global terrorism have brought new vulnerabilities. A community resilience framework can help communities identify these vulnerabilities, and take steps to mitigate them.

With the growing affluence after World War II, Americans were able to live wherever they wanted, rather than where they were born and raised. As a result, more and more people have migrated to what they deem to be more attractive locations. In 1900, less than half of our population lived near either the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. Now, over three fourths of Americans live within 50 miles of one of the coasts, and the proportion is increasing. Smaller communities that were formed as a hub for agricultural activity are disappearing, or are being transformed into bedroom communities for a nearby urban center. Where once almost all communities were self-sufficient, now most communities have complex ties to others in their region or the nation (and, more and more, to the rest of the world), and must depend on others for critical capabilities.

As a result, more and more communities are at risk, in a variety of ways. More communities are faced with major coastal weather-related hazards - hurricanes, floods – than ever before. The threat of a pandemic continues to hang over all of our heads. To these must be added a new litany of hazards – terrorist acts and economic dislocations. We are assaulted nearly every day with news stories about terrorist attacks either here or in foreign countries. Over the last quarter century, the economies of American communities have seen the impacts of the interconnectedness of the global economy, with much less fanfare. For example, downturns in the Asian or Russian economies have led to reduced demand for American agricultural products such as grain and poultry, stressing the communities where they are produced.

Domestically, the web of interdependencies surrounding a community also introduces new and often unrecognized hazards. For example, a major industrial accident in an urban center may have devastating consequences on the bedroom communities around it that depend on the urban center for jobs for their citizens. A decision to close a manufacturing facility made in a corporate headquarters a thousand miles away, may devastate a community whose existence depends on that plant. While hurricanes and floods have always had the potential to isolate smaller communities, that isolation may now mean that the community is cut off from essential services.

Using a community resilience framework, communities can look at the impacts of various scenarios and better identify their spectrum of vulnerabilities. In some cases, the community will be able to take action to reduce the impacts; for example, strengthening a bridge to ensure its integrity during an earthquake. In others, the community may not be able to take action; for example, preventive actions may be too costly, or the triggering event might be something that will occur in another community. In these cases, a community resilience framework can help communities anticipate impacts and develop plans to address them - again, spotlighting the need for a community resilience framework.


A note from CARRI Blog Maintenance: the blog entry posted January 26, 2010 was posted inadvertently; it will be re-posted at a future date. Thank you.