Community Trajectory

In a guest blog our colleague, Dr. Andy Felts in Charleston, South Carolina , writes:

One of the observations on community resilience that the CARRI team has agreed on relates to the ‘trajectory’ of a community before a disaster. By this, we mean, broadly, the direction a community is taking pre-disaster. Our working hypothesis is that the trajectory of a community will affect the speed of its recovery or whether it may recover at all.

A simple example will explain:

In terms of housing and construction, Hurricane Katrina could not have hit at a worse time during the two decades prior to 2005. The storm and post-disaster period coincided with the leveling off and major downturn of the housing finance (hence construction) market in the US. Financial institutions were reluctant to lend money to either developers or individuals seeking to rebuild. As a result, recovery in the Gulf has obviously been hampered. A downward trajectory makes recovery much more difficult.

In this case, the trajectory of the Gulf Coast communities affected by Katrina was part of a national trend and mostly beyond their control.

In other cases, the direction a community is taking may be more under its control.

Still using housing as the example:

A community that lacks affordable, workforce housing or has inadequate housing is on a downward trajectory and will have worse housing problems post-disaster. New Orleans may be a good example.

But it is not enough to consider a single dimension or factor. As we move toward developing an assessment tool, it is growing more evident to us that while it may be possible to characterize the overall trajectory of a community, it may be more helpful to see where they are heading with respect to a number of variables. It is possible that as a community works to improve its trajectory in one area, it may actually be degrading another. This is the great benefit of continuing to keep an eye on the mantra that recovery must involve the whole fabric and all sectors of the community.

Let’s stick with housing to illustrate:

Communities could work to provide affordable, workforce housing in remote areas and that helps that situation. However, the community also should examine the burden such development might place on the transportation and other parts of a community’s infrastructure. An upward trajectory for housing may be offset by a downturn in transportation.

A resilient community should strategize to be on upward trajectories along several dimensions. The likelihood of this happening is greatly improved through perspectives such as CARRI’s that emphasize interdependencies. Being aware of the potential trade-offs between different areas of community functioning can prevent a community from sub-optimizing in one sector at the expense of another. This, we believe, will be valuable information as the community plots a path forward toward improving its resilience.

All of this raises one important point. There are good reasons for adopting the CARRI perspective even if a disaster does not occur. It makes for a healthier community and better place to live.