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Monday, March 8, 2010
Monday, March 1, 2010
Cascading Events
The following is offered by Dr. Arthur A. Felts, Research Associate, CARRI and Director, Joseph P. Riley, Jr. Institute for Urban Affairs and Policy Studies.
Most are probably familiar with the old maxim:
“For want of a nail, a shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, a horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost.” For want of a rider, a battle was lost. For want of a battle, a kingdom was lost.”
The maxim describes quite well what we call ‘cascading events.’ As communities, regions, nations, and even continents have become increasingly interdependent, understanding and factoring cascading events becomes an important part of assessing community resilience.
Think of our growing interdependencies in this way: In 1960 a major disruption in international trade would have meant you might not have bananas to put on your cereal. In short, its effects would have been fairly minimal. Now think what such a disruption could mean in 2010.
Cascading events are easiest to understand in the private sector—with economic consequences. A major disaster in the Pacific Northwest might reduce the ability of industries there to supply the rest of the nation with plywood. This might, in turn, cause other building materials to be substituted and thus reduce long-term market share for the plywood producers. Or, the lack of materials or higher costs might cause a southeast contractor to go out of business.
Complex interdependencies are a major reason that business continuity planning has become increasingly important in the private sector. A large company that outsources a service or production to another nation has to factor what a disaster in that nation would mean for its ability to provide services and/or products. Those dissatisfied with services might seek the other’s products, which then might cause production layoffs.
Some small businesses may be an important link in a complex supply chain and if they are shuttered by a disaster, then the whole supply chain is disrupted unless there are already back up plans that have been thought through in advance.
Within any region that experiences a disaster there are also complex interdependencies. A hospital may rely on one local provider for oxygen. A municipality may have a contract for fuel from one provider. If the provider goes down, the ability to function is impaired and that will inevitably hinder recovery.
If we think outside the business supply chain box, we can see cascading events as affecting disaster recovery in many ways. Whole neighborhoods may go into a protracted decline with the loss of only a portion of housing or a single grocery store. Mutual aid agreements with surrounding communities may not work if those communities are themselves affected by the disaster. A community that does not plan to provide for the needs of families of key workers may lose many of them as New Orleans did its police force which then create personnel issues at the expense of focusing on recovery. An injury to a family breadwinner may cause the family to increase long-term demands on support systems.
An increasingly interdependent world has made the concept of cascading events important in planning for recovery and understanding how events that we do not experience directly can affect us in some very unanticipated ways.
Most are probably familiar with the old maxim:
“For want of a nail, a shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, a horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost.” For want of a rider, a battle was lost. For want of a battle, a kingdom was lost.”
The maxim describes quite well what we call ‘cascading events.’ As communities, regions, nations, and even continents have become increasingly interdependent, understanding and factoring cascading events becomes an important part of assessing community resilience.
Think of our growing interdependencies in this way: In 1960 a major disruption in international trade would have meant you might not have bananas to put on your cereal. In short, its effects would have been fairly minimal. Now think what such a disruption could mean in 2010.
Cascading events are easiest to understand in the private sector—with economic consequences. A major disaster in the Pacific Northwest might reduce the ability of industries there to supply the rest of the nation with plywood. This might, in turn, cause other building materials to be substituted and thus reduce long-term market share for the plywood producers. Or, the lack of materials or higher costs might cause a southeast contractor to go out of business.
Complex interdependencies are a major reason that business continuity planning has become increasingly important in the private sector. A large company that outsources a service or production to another nation has to factor what a disaster in that nation would mean for its ability to provide services and/or products. Those dissatisfied with services might seek the other’s products, which then might cause production layoffs.
Some small businesses may be an important link in a complex supply chain and if they are shuttered by a disaster, then the whole supply chain is disrupted unless there are already back up plans that have been thought through in advance.
Within any region that experiences a disaster there are also complex interdependencies. A hospital may rely on one local provider for oxygen. A municipality may have a contract for fuel from one provider. If the provider goes down, the ability to function is impaired and that will inevitably hinder recovery.
If we think outside the business supply chain box, we can see cascading events as affecting disaster recovery in many ways. Whole neighborhoods may go into a protracted decline with the loss of only a portion of housing or a single grocery store. Mutual aid agreements with surrounding communities may not work if those communities are themselves affected by the disaster. A community that does not plan to provide for the needs of families of key workers may lose many of them as New Orleans did its police force which then create personnel issues at the expense of focusing on recovery. An injury to a family breadwinner may cause the family to increase long-term demands on support systems.
An increasingly interdependent world has made the concept of cascading events important in planning for recovery and understanding how events that we do not experience directly can affect us in some very unanticipated ways.
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